Winter is usually the time of year when Southwest Florida gardeners get a break from the daily downpours, intense humidity and afternoon thunderstorms of summer. Irrigation schedules become more predictable, outdoor gardening becomes much more comfortable and many of our favorite plants thrive in the milder weather.
The winter of 2026–2027 could be different.
El Niño conditions are already present and are expected to strengthen through the end of 2026. For Florida, that typically means a wetter and stormier winter than normal. While El Niño can help suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, it also tends to create a more active southern storm track during winter, increasing our chances of heavy rainfall, strong thunderstorms and severe weather.
For Southwest Florida gardeners, this means some of the plant-care habits that normally work during our dry season may need to change. Irrigation may need to be reduced, drainage becomes especially important, and plants should be prepared for periods of heavy rain and strong winds.
At Sanjuan Family Nursery in Bonita Springs, we want homeowners to know what to watch for before the weather changes. A few adjustments can make a big difference in keeping your landscape healthy throughout an unusually wet Southwest Florida winter.
TL;DR: How to Prepare Your Plants for an El Niño Winter
A wetter winter means Southwest Florida gardeners should pay more attention to how much water their plants are actually receiving instead of automatically following their normal dry-season watering schedule.
This winter, remember to:
- Reduce or temporarily skip irrigation after significant rainfall.
- Check the soil before watering rather than relying only on a timer.
- Make sure containers and landscape beds drain properly.
- Watch for yellowing, wilting or other signs of excess moisture.
- Continue monitoring plants for underwatering because individual locations can still dry out between storms.
- Prune dead, damaged or problematic branches before severe weather.
- Move or secure lightweight containers when storms are expected.
- Stake young or vulnerable plants when necessary.
- Inspect plants after major storms for damage and standing water.
The goal is not to stop watering altogether. It is to respond to what your plants and soil are telling you.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with unusually warm surface waters across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Although those warmer waters are thousands of miles away from Florida, a temperature change across such a large area of ocean can affect atmospheric circulation around the world.
One of those effects is a change in the jet stream over North America. During El Niño, the southern branch of the jet stream tends to become more active, helping guide storm systems across the southern United States.
For Florida, the result is often a wetter and stormier winter.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects El Niño to strengthen through the remainder of 2026 and continue into early 2027. Seasonal forecasts also favor above-normal precipitation across parts of the Southeast during winter, when El Niño’s influence on North American weather is typically strongest.
That does not mean it will rain every day, and a seasonal forecast cannot predict exactly what will happen in Bonita Springs or Naples months in advance. It does mean that the odds favor a different winter weather pattern than Southwest Florida gardeners are accustomed to.
Fewer Hurricanes Does Not Necessarily Mean Less Severe Weather
One of the better-known effects of El Niño is its tendency to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. Increased upper-level winds can create wind shear that makes it more difficult for tropical systems to develop and strengthen.
That can be good news during hurricane season, but it does not necessarily translate into a calm winter.
El Niño winters can bring more frequent low-pressure systems and thunderstorms across Florida. Severe thunderstorms may produce strong winds, heavy rain and, under the right atmospheric conditions, tornadoes.
For your landscape, the name attached to the storm matters much less than the conditions it produces. Several inches of rain over saturated soil can damage plants without a hurricane anywhere nearby, and a severe thunderstorm can produce enough wind to break branches, knock over containers or uproot vulnerable plants.
Preparing your garden for El Niño is therefore less about preparing for one major event and more about keeping plants healthy through repeated periods of wet and occasionally severe weather.
Your Winter Watering Schedule May Need to Change
For many Southwest Florida homeowners, irrigation becomes almost automatic. The controller is programmed for certain days, sprinklers turn on early in the morning and the landscape gets watered whether anyone is paying much attention or not.
That can become a problem during a wetter-than-normal winter.
If Mother Nature has already given your landscape a thorough watering, running the irrigation system on top of that may leave roots sitting in saturated soil for longer than they should.
Check the Soil Before You Water
Instead of watering solely because it is a scheduled irrigation day, check whether the plants actually need it.
Push your finger a few inches into the soil near smaller plants or check the soil around the root zone of larger plants. If it is still noticeably wet from recent rainfall, additional irrigation may not be necessary.
Keep in mind that different parts of the same property can dry at very different rates. A sunny landscape bed with sandy soil may dry quickly, while a shaded area with poor drainage can remain wet for days.
Containers are another good example. A large pot under a covered lanai may receive almost none of the rainfall reaching the rest of the yard, while an identical container sitting in the open could be saturated.
There is no single watering schedule that works for every plant in every location.
Make Sure Excess Water Has Somewhere to Go
Reducing irrigation only solves part of the problem. The soil also needs to drain.
Southwest Florida’s sandy soils can drain quickly, but that does not guarantee good drainage everywhere. Compacted soil, low areas, poorly designed landscape beds and containers without sufficient drainage holes can all hold excessive water around plant roots.
Check containers to make sure drainage holes are open and not blocked by roots or debris. Avoid allowing pots to sit in saucers filled with water for extended periods.
In landscape beds, pay attention after a heavy rain. If water remains pooled around plants long after the rest of the yard has drained, you may have a drainage issue rather than a watering issue.
What Does an Overwatered Plant Look Like?
One of the confusing parts of plant care is that too much water and too little water can sometimes produce similar symptoms.
A plant with damaged roots may wilt even though the soil is wet because those roots are no longer functioning properly. That is why you should check the soil before assuming a wilted plant needs another drink.
Common signs associated with excessive moisture can include:
- Yellowing leaves
- Leaves dropping unexpectedly
- Soft or weak growth
- Wilting even though the soil remains wet
- Soil that stays soggy for extended periods
- Mushy or darkening roots and stems in more serious cases
- Increased fungal or disease problems
If you suspect overwatering, stop adding water until the soil has had an opportunity to dry appropriately for that particular plant. Check drainage holes on containers and look for standing water around landscape plants.
If poor drainage is the underlying problem, changing the irrigation schedule alone will not fix it. The plant may need better-draining soil, a different container, a raised planting area or relocation to a more suitable part of the landscape.
What Does an Underwatered Plant Look Like?
A rainy El Niño winter does not eliminate the possibility of underwatering.
Southwest Florida can still experience dry periods between storm systems, and our sandy soil can lose moisture relatively quickly. Containers may dry especially fast depending on their size, material and location.
Signs of a plant that may not be receiving enough water include:
- Dry or crispy brown leaf edges
- Drooping or wilted leaves and stems
- Dry soil pulling away from the sides of a container
- Leaves curling or becoming brittle
- Premature leaf drop
- Slowed or stunted growth
If the soil is dry several inches below the surface and the plant is showing signs of stress, give it a thorough watering rather than repeatedly applying small amounts of water to the surface.
Deep watering encourages moisture to reach the root zone. Allow the soil to absorb the water and then check the plant again rather than immediately continuing to water.
The easiest rule to remember this winter is simple: check the soil before treating the symptom.
A drooping plant in bone-dry soil probably needs water. A drooping plant sitting in saturated soil probably does not.
Prepare Your Landscape Before Strong Storms Arrive
Water is only part of the El Niño concern. Strong thunderstorms and the possibility of severe weather mean homeowners should also look at how well their plants can handle wind.
You do not need to completely overhaul the landscape every time thunderstorms appear in the forecast. A little preventative maintenance before the stormiest part of winter can eliminate many of the obvious vulnerabilities.
Prune Plants Before Severe Weather
Dead, damaged and weak branches are more likely to break during strong winds. Removing problematic growth ahead of time can reduce the amount of loose material that may come down during a storm.
However, storm preparation does not mean aggressively cutting back every tree and shrub on the property. Excessive or improper pruning can weaken plants rather than protect them.
Focus on appropriate maintenance for the particular species. Large trees or branches that present a safety concern should be handled by a qualified professional rather than treated as a DIY pruning project.
Secure or Relocate Potted Plants
Containers are especially vulnerable during severe weather because they can tip over, roll or become airborne.
Before a strong storm, move smaller potted plants into a protected area such as a garage, enclosed lanai or another secure location when possible. Larger containers that cannot easily be moved should be positioned where they are less exposed to wind and secured when appropriate.
Do not forget hanging baskets. A hanging plant that is perfectly safe during normal weather can become a projectile during severe winds.
Stake Young and Vulnerable Plants
Recently planted trees and certain taller plants may need temporary support while their root systems become established.
Proper staking can help protect vulnerable plants from excessive movement during windy conditions, but more support is not always better. Plants should generally retain some natural movement, and stakes or ties should not cut into the trunk or stems.
Check existing stakes before stormy weather. Loose stakes, broken ties or supports that have become too tight as the plant grew should be corrected.
Once a plant is sufficiently established, unnecessary staking should be removed rather than left indefinitely.
Pay Attention to Flooding After Heavy Rain
If El Niño brings periods of unusually heavy winter rainfall, some landscapes may experience temporary flooding or prolonged saturation.
After a major storm, inspect the yard rather than immediately assuming everything is fine because the plants are still standing.
Look for water collecting around root zones, exposed roots where soil has washed away, erosion around planting beds and plants that have shifted or begun leaning.
Avoid working heavily in saturated soil whenever possible. Walking repeatedly through soaked planting beds can compact the soil, while attempting to work around roots when the ground is extremely wet can cause additional damage.
Once conditions improve, reassess plants individually. Some species tolerate short periods of wet soil better than others, which is another reason plant selection matters in areas of the property that naturally hold water.
The Right Plant in the Right Place Matters Even More During Extreme Weather
An unusual weather pattern has a way of revealing weaknesses in a landscape.
A plant that constantly struggles because it is receiving too much shade, sitting in poorly draining soil or growing somewhere inappropriate for the species may become significantly more stressed during an exceptionally wet winter.
Florida-friendly landscaping starts with selecting plants that fit the conditions where they will actually live.
Before adding something new to your landscape, consider its mature size, sunlight requirements, water needs and preferred soil conditions. A plant that naturally tolerates the conditions in a particular part of your yard will generally require less intervention than one that needs constant watering, drainage correction or pruning just to survive there.
Let the Weather Determine Your Plant Care This Winter
Southwest Florida gardeners are used to adjusting to dramatic differences between our wet and dry seasons. El Niño may simply require another adjustment.
If winter rainfall increases as expected, resist the temptation to care for your landscape according to the calendar. Pay attention to actual rainfall, soil moisture and what individual plants are showing you.
Some weeks your irrigation system may be necessary. Other weeks, Mother Nature may handle the watering completely.
The same principle applies after storms. Inspect plants, correct obvious damage and drainage problems, but give healthy plants an opportunity to recover before assuming every change requires intervention.
Good gardening is often less about doing more and more about knowing when a plant actually needs your help.
Get Your Southwest Florida Landscape Ready at Sanjuan Family Nursery
Every landscape is different, and so is every plant. A hibiscus growing in full sun has different needs from a shade-loving plant under a mature tree, just as a citrus tree planted in the ground behaves differently from a flowering plant growing in a container on your lanai.
At Sanjuan Family Nursery in Bonita Springs, we can help you choose plants suited to Southwest Florida’s unique growing conditions and understand how to care for the plants already in your landscape.
If you are unsure whether a struggling plant is receiving too much water, too little water or simply growing in the wrong conditions, bring us a photo and tell us what you are seeing. We can help you figure out what your plant needs and how to adjust your care as Southwest Florida heads into an unusual 2026–2027 winter.
Visit Sanjuan Family Nursery in Bonita Springs to get your plants and landscape ready for the season ahead.
NOAA’s July guidance says El Niño has a 97% chance of persisting through early spring 2027, with an 81% chance of reaching very strong status during October through December 2026. Its seasonal outlook specifically favors above-normal winter precipitation across the southern tier, with the strongest probabilities over parts of the Southeast.
